Trade of the Day https://mtatradeoftheday.com/ Restoring the Lost Art of Smart Speculation Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:16:04 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.8.3 Six of My Last 8 Trades Were Winners. Here’s the Next Candidate. https://mtatradeoftheday.com/six-of-my-last-8-trades-were-winners-heres-the-next-candidate/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/six-of-my-last-8-trades-were-winners-heres-the-next-candidate/#respond Thu, 12 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20370 Publisher’s Note: Imagine watching a stock crater – and knowing exactly when to trade it before it roars back. That’s exactly what our Head Trading Tactician Bryan Bottarelli is showing traders next week. On Wednesday, March 18, at 2 p.m. ET, Bryan will unveil a new system that could make traders $5,000 overnight (or MORE) … Continued

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Publisher’s Note: Imagine watching a stock crater – and knowing exactly when to trade it before it roars back.

That’s exactly what our Head Trading Tactician Bryan Bottarelli is showing traders next week.

On Wednesday, March 18, at 2 p.m. ET, Bryan will unveil a new system that could make traders $5,000 overnight (or MORE) by flipping stocks for quick doubles.

He’ll also reveal his top 30 stocks to flip based on 10 years of historical data… just for attending.

You won’t want to miss this free event.

Click here to sign up for Stock Flip Fortunes.

– Stephen Prior, Publisher


Despite yesterday’s quieter open, the indexes are still walking on eggshells.

The Iran conflict is unresolved, and one presidential post could send the market screaming in either direction.

So my trade strategy is as follows…

I don’t want to take big shots on short-dated positions in these conditions.

Instead, I’d rather find charts that are doing their own thing.

And one chart I love right now is Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises (BW).

BW is an American energy company best known for their steam boilers.

I’ve had my eye on BW since Monday, and its chart is starting to come together.

Check out its post-earnings surge below…

You can see the stock firing off after BW reported earnings on March 4. Its latest report highlighted a return to profitability in the fourth quarter and a massive increase in backlog driven by a major AI data center project.

Since then, it has been carrying momentum higher after brief consolidation periods.

That’s the post-earnings surge pattern in action.

When timed properly, I can trade these surges over and over again for multiple winners.

It’s one of my most reliable ways to generate consistent profits on earnings winners. So far this month, I’ve closed 6-of-8 trades for winners for a 75% win rate, including a 100% winner on FSLY in 7 trading days.

Action Plan: With the markets shaky, I found a chart in BW that just doesn’t care. If it continues to surge – we could see multiple trade opportunities.

If you can wake up before 9:30 a.m., you can make these post-earnings AFTERSHOCKS trades too.

Click here to learn more about Opening Bell AFTERSHOCKS today.

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Great Stocks On Down Days = Buckets Of Cash https://mtatradeoftheday.com/stock-flipping-strategy-25000-to-129-million/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/stock-flipping-strategy-25000-to-129-million/#respond Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:20:49 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20367 Bryan Bottarelli reveals how flipping one stock alone could have generated $92,493 in profits using his proven stock flipping strategy that targets 47% average gains with 87% win rate over 10+ years of trading.

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Buckets and buckets full of cash.

That’s what happens when you flip great stocks on ugly days instead of buying and holding like everyone else.

I’ve been testing this strategy for over 10 years. I’ve analyzed thousands of stocks dating back to 2015.

The numbers don’t lie… my research yielded an 87% win rate, with average gains of 47.65% per flip.

But here’s what gets me excited – you can flip the same stock over and over again.

Take one Magnificent 7 stock. Everyone knows it’s volatile. What they don’t know is that volatility creates the most predictable moneymaking opportunities I’ve ever seen.

The Mag 7 Millionaire Math

January 2, 2025: This Mag 7 stock reported less-than-stellar results. The stock tanked 6.08%. Classic overreaction.

If you bought calls that afternoon and sold them the next morning? You could’ve seen a 667% overnight gain.

Chart:

That’s $5,000 turned into $38,350 while you slept.

But here’s where it gets interesting. That wasn’t a one-time thing.

I tracked every “ugly day” on this Mag 7 stock in 2025. Every time bad news hit and the stock dropped hard, I calculated what would’ve happened had you flipped it overnight.

The results? 10 flip opportunities on it alone, including…

  • January 2: a $33,300 profit
  • February 11: a $6,700
  • July 24: a $25,418

Flipping just this one stock could have yielded $92,493 in profits.

The Secret: Overreactions Are Predictable

Markets overreact. They always have, and they always will.

When Netflix dropped 3.2% on Trump tariff threats? That gave us a 324% overnight flip opportunity.

When Nvidia lost $600 billion in market cap (biggest single-day dollar loss in history)? You could have seen a 120% overnight flip the next day.

Even boring stocks work. Coca-Cola missed earnings – down 1.5%. Next day flip: 263% gain.

The pattern is everywhere once you know what to look for.

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YOUR ACTION PLAN

The math is simple: if you can target 47% average gains with 87% accuracy, you can compound small money into life-changing money fast.

Members of my Post-Market Profits trading research service will soon have access to this exciting new trading strategy. Stay tuned.

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How To Spot A Triple-Digit Winner Before It Fires https://mtatradeoftheday.com/how-to-spot-a-triple-digit-winner-before-it-fires/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/how-to-spot-a-triple-digit-winner-before-it-fires/#respond Wed, 11 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20364 Publisher’s Note: The market keeps trying to break down… but it won’t actually break. The Nasdaq 100 can’t seem to close below $600. That behavior isn’t random — and CJ’s breaking down exactly what it means TODAY at 2 pm ET during Monument Traders LIVE. He’ll cover why certain stocks are bouncing immediately after one-day … Continued

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Publisher’s Note: The market keeps trying to break down… but it won’t actually break.

The Nasdaq 100 can’t seem to close below $600. That behavior isn’t random — and CJ’s breaking down exactly what it means TODAY at 2 pm ET during Monument Traders LIVE.

He’ll cover why certain stocks are bouncing immediately after one-day selloffs, whether now’s the time to buy, and take your questions live.

Click here to join Wednesday at 2 pm ET

— Stephen Prior

Publisher, Monument Traders Alliance


Starbucks is setting up one of the cleanest earnings plays I’ve seen this quarter.

Five timeframes. All showing the same squeeze pattern.

And yet I’m not touching it.

Here’s why — and what I’m waiting for before I pull the trigger.

When Multiple Timeframes Align

I’m seeing squeezes on five different timeframes: daily, 195-minute, 130-minute, 78-minute, and 60-minute charts.

If you’re not familiar with squeezes, think of them like a coiled spring. When Bollinger Bands contract inside Keltner Channels, volatility is compressed. The market’s building energy for a move.

When I see this pattern across multiple timeframes? That’s not a coincidence. That’s the market telling me something big is coming.

With SBUX reporting April 28th, we’re looking at perfect timing for volatility expansion. Daily squeezes into earnings are money-makers.

The Technical Foundation

SBUX has stacked EMAs on the daily chart – shorter moving averages layered above longer ones, creating persistent buying pressure.

Stacked EMAs + squeeze setup = a stock that wants to move higher but is building pressure for release.

The 20-day EMA sits at $97.37. That’s my key level. In squeeze plays, how price reacts here tells me which direction the explosion goes.

sbux chart

Reading Relative Strength

Most traders see SBUX up 19% while SPY sits flat and think “nice move.”

I see leadership. This stock is proving it can outperform in a choppy market. Stocks that lead into earnings? Those squeezes resolve UP.

We’re reading what the market is already telling us about this stock’s behavior.

This setup WILL work. The question isn’t IF – it’s WHEN.

Earnings are still over a month away. What I’m watching for is a momentum shift on the shorter timeframes – the 60-minute or 78-minute squeeze breaking with volume. That’s my green light.

If SBUX breaks below $97.37 on volume, the squeeze resolves down instead. Simple as that.

Your Action Plan

Put SBUX on your watchlist. Watch for that momentum shift.

Multiple timeframes firing, stacked EMAs providing support, relative strength showing leadership – that’s when this theoretical setup becomes real money.

The beauty of squeeze setups? They eventually resolve. And when they do with this much confluence, they move fast.

Patience separates the traders who last from the ones who don’t. But when the signal fires, you better be ready to act.

If you want to know when or if I’ll act, check out Profit Surge Trader.

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The Uglier the Market Gets, the More I Smile – Here’s Why https://mtatradeoftheday.com/the-uglier-the-market-gets-the-more-i-smile/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/the-uglier-the-market-gets-the-more-i-smile/#respond Tue, 10 Mar 2026 19:00:31 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20358 When the market drops 1%, pension funds see buying opportunities. Hedge funds deploy cash they’ve been sitting on.

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The recent headlines have been ugly, and the markets have felt it.

Since the initial U.S. airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 27, the S&P 500 has fallen approximately 1.2 to 2% on average. The Dow has fallen more than 1,000 points (roughly 1.5% to 2%) since Feb. 27.

But this negative sentiment is nothing new to me.

I’ve always been one who looks for opportunity amid the chaos. It’s how I traded the COVID crash for a 246% overall gain (all while the S&P lost 20%).

And last week was the perfect example of how to actually profit in down markets like these.

I call it the “Dark Ticker” trade.

We’ve been using Dark Ticker trades to take winners in 2026 whenever the indexes drop below a certain threshold.

The Latest Dark Ticker Trade (41% Winner)…

The rules of Dark Ticker trades are simple. Anytime a major index (SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA, or GLD) closes down 1% or more, we buy calls that expire the next day. Zero emotion, zero guesswork.

Last Wednesday was the perfect example…

The market was ugly, and the IWM hit my -1% trigger. That’s when the Dark Ticker strategy kicks in automatically.

I got positioned on the IWM calls.

The next day the IWM bounced back up, and we rang the register for a 41% overnight winner.

That’s the power of using historical data to play market swings to your advantage.

Several members were also in on last week’s Dark Ticker trade.

Here’s what they had to say…

“51% right out of the gate, way to start the day!” – Mrandall

“48% wakes me up everytime!” – ThomI

“Gotta love a quick 55% Dark Ticker winner within one minute of market open.” – CoachBill

“Made 20% overnight! Thanks Bryan!!” – Don-Andre

I know this Dark Ticker strategy sounds almost too simple. But that’s the idea.

We wanted to make this trade as easy as possible so traders could take quick overnight winners when the market is in freefall.

And with the current geopolitical tensions in Iran – the Dark Ticker strategy is one I’ll continue to use anytime a major index drops 1%.

The Science Behind The Dark Ticker Trade

The Dark Ticker trade isn’t a get-rich-quick trade. It’s a systematic approach based on how big money actually moves.

When the market drops 1%, pension funds see buying opportunities. Hedge funds deploy cash they’ve been sitting on.

ETF rebalancing also kicks in. All that institutional buying pressure creates predictable bounces.

With our Dark Ticker trade, we’re just setting ourselves up to ride that wave.

And since these are short-term options, you’re never stuck for months wondering what comes next.

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YOUR ACTION PLAN

The Dark Ticker strategy is one of my BEST ways to profit from down markets like we’re seeing now.

And in less than 8 days – I’ll be revealing the next evolution of my Dark Ticker Strategy.

I’m calling it “Stock Flips,” and it’ll show you how to profit from individual tickers when they’re in freefall. Similar to trading ugly indexes, but this time I’ll be trading ugly stocks.

I’m excited to share it with you.

Check your inbox tomorrow for more details.

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This Chart is Ignoring the Iran Selloff https://mtatradeoftheday.com/this-chart-is-ignoring-the-iran-selloff/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/this-chart-is-ignoring-the-iran-selloff/#respond Tue, 10 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20356 Publisher’s Note: Is it time to buy or hide from the market? The indexes keep trying to break down – but our senior analyst Chris Johnson is going to show you why that won’t happen. At 2 p.m. ET this Wednesday, Chris will be showing traders the deeper details of one-day selloffs. He’ll also show … Continued

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Publisher’s Note: Is it time to buy or hide from the market?

The indexes keep trying to break down – but our senior analyst Chris Johnson is going to show you why that won’t happen.

At 2 p.m. ET this Wednesday, Chris will be showing traders the deeper details of one-day selloffs. He’ll also show you why certain stocks are actually bouncing back.

Once you see the market this way, you’ll track it daily.

Click here to sign up today.

– Stephen Prior, Publisher


Markets opened in the red again yesterday as the conflict in Iran showed no signs of colling.

My plan for this trading week is to stay light – no guns blazing.

Instead, I’m looking for charts that are ignoring the macro noise and moving on their own terms.

One of those tickers is Cava Group (CAVA).

I’m looking to add to CAVA early and often this week.

Here’s why….

CAVA closed strong on Friday, riding continued momentum from a blowout earnings report. That gap up created a buy opportunity – and I believe we see a gap close and then some as the week plays out.

Check out its chart below.

You’ll see a clear gap up, followed by some weekend consolidation. This is the kind of setup I love. With clear momentum, we just need a trigger for a gap close.

Action Plan: CAVA is building on post-earnings momentum, and the chart structure points to a move higher. I think we could see a nice move up on the chart soon.

It’s why CAVA is one of my top watchlist trades this week.

For more picks like CAVA, today I’m showing traders how to target 300% trade setups just minutes after the market opens.

Click here to learn more about Profit Surge Trader.

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Smart Traders Are Moving In on Oil’s Parabolic Spike https://mtatradeoftheday.com/smart-traders-moving-in-oil-parabolic-spike/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/smart-traders-moving-in-oil-parabolic-spike/#respond Mon, 09 Mar 2026 20:10:43 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20351 War Room traders are eyeing oil's parabolic move as geopolitical chaos drives prices to unsustainable levels. Here's the leveraged play they're making on the inevitable reversion.

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A big topic of conversation inside The War Room today has been this…

“What’s the best way to short oil?”

And no wonder.

Look at the United States Oil Fund (USO) chart – you’ll see the parabolic move in oil prices over the last week. Check it out:

Chart: USO: Time to Short Oil?

This is clearly a reaction to the geopolitical news, which makes total sense given the daily chaos. Just today, the headlines remain uncertain, volatile, and alarming.

CNBC reports the following…

Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, three big OPEC producers, have cut oil output as they run out of storage space. They are unable to export through the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian threats against tankers. The U.S. war against Iran has shown few signs of easing.

The closure of the Strait has triggered the biggest oil supply disruption in history, according to an analysis by consulting firm Rapidan Energy.

Since about 20% of the world’s oil consumption flows through the Strait, it’s easy to understand why we’re seeing such a massive spike.

But here’s the thing: history shows that maintaining these lofty levels is unsustainable.

That’s why smart traders are moving in…

Yes, oil prices will remain volatile. Yes, we could still see prices continue to spike.

But eventually, we’ll see a reversion to the mean – and that’s where the opportunity lies.

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YOUR ACTION PLAN

A cheap (and leveraged) way to play an oil pullback is using April call options on the ProShares UltraShort Energy ETF (DUG).

This index measures the inverse performance of energy companies in the S&P 500, which means any oil price pullback could trigger a bounce in DUG.

When that happens, you could profit by owning April call options.

This was a speculative move we made in the War Room today.

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This CEO Just Made a $148 Million Bet https://mtatradeoftheday.com/this-ceo-just-made-a-148-million-bet/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/this-ceo-just-made-a-148-million-bet/#respond Mon, 09 Mar 2026 12:00:00 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20349 A CEO just dropped $148 million of his own money on his company’s stock. In this market, that’s either genius or insanity. The market is ugly right now. All you have to do is look at how we closed last week. The VIX and oil are soaring, and geopolitical tensions are sky-high. Most executives are … Continued

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A CEO just dropped $148 million of his own money on his company’s stock. In this market, that’s either genius or insanity.

The market is ugly right now. All you have to do is look at how we closed last week. The VIX and oil are soaring, and geopolitical tensions are sky-high.

Most executives are staying quiet or selling.

Not The Trade Desk’s CEO. He just bought $148.1 million worth of his own stock on the open market.

If that doesn’t scream conviction, I don’t know what does.

Here’s why this matters more than you think.

Insiders can sell for a dozen reasons – tax purposes, estate planning, divorce, you name it. But when they go into the open market and buy? That’s pure conviction.

Especially in tech. These guys get so many options handed to them, they don’t need to buy stock. When a tech CEO bypasses his free options to drop $148 million in cash, you pay attention.

Insider Buy TTD

The Setup

TTD has been in a brutal six-month slump. Slowing ad-tech growth, macro uncertainty, competition from Google and Amazon, valuation worries – the usual suspects.

We haven’t reached blood-in-the-streets territory yet. But that rarely happens all at once these days. What we typically see is certain sectors getting slammed while the overall market holds up. We saw it recently in software after the SaaSapocalypse.

When this happens, I start crunching numbers. I’ll look at historical data like P/E ratios, fundamental metrics like cash and debt, you name it.

But one of the best signs a stock chart is bottoming out? Insiders are putting their own money where their mouth is.

Hype vs. Reality

There are rumors OpenAI wants to use The Trade Desk’s ad platform to sell ads inside ChatGPT. Maybe true, maybe not.

Doesn’t matter. The CEO just gave you his vote of confidence with his wallet. That’s reality.

Your Action Plan

I currently have no position in TTD, but I’m watching how it trades this week. If you’re looking for buy signs in tech, it’s when insiders are buying stock in the open market with their own cash.

That’s exactly what we’re seeing in TTD right now.

Tracking insider moves like this is what we do in The War Room. If you want to see how we spot these opportunities before they move, click here.

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How I Use the “Big Mac” Test to Measure the Dollar https://mtatradeoftheday.com/how-i-use-the-big-mac-test-to-measure-the-dollar/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/how-i-use-the-big-mac-test-to-measure-the-dollar/#respond Fri, 06 Mar 2026 20:00:30 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20344 The second major currency worldwide is the euro. And right behind the euro are currencies like pound, the yen and the yuan. The yuan less so because it doesn’t really behave like a free floating currency.

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A weak dollar is the stated policy of the U.S. government… no matter what it says publicly.

One day, the Treasury Secretary says a strong dollar is important. Not the goal, mind you, but important. There’s a difference.

The next day, President Trump contradicts the Secretary by publicly stating that a weaker U.S. dollar is good for trade.

Who are you going to believe?

That’s why I do my own research. And despite the greenback falling sharply since the beginning of 2025… I’m convinced the dollar has much more room to drop.

When I travel, I use a simple test to determine whether the dollar is cheap or expensive.

I call it the “Big Mac” test.

Anyone can do it… by simply comparing what a Big Mac meal costs in the U.S. versus places overseas.

The second major currency worldwide is the euro. And right behind the euro are currencies like pound, the yen, and the yuan. The yuan less so because it doesn’t really behave like a free floating currency.

Here’s what I learned… On a recent trip to Europe, I stopped in at several McDonald’s restaurants in three Spanish cities and in London.

In Spain, a Big Mac meal cost around $9.50. In London, it was around $10.

In the U.S., it’s well over $10 in some places and as much as $12 in cities (comparable to London and Barcelona).

A few years ago, it would not have been close. The Big Mac meal stateside was always much cheaper.

You may scoff at this metric, but magazines like The Economist have been publishing the “Big Mac Index” for decades. Many investors and economists follow it religiously.

By this measure alone, the U.S. dollar could easily fall another 10% from here to make it competitive.

But there’s more.

The Fed is under pressure to lower rates and will likely do so a couple more times this year under the new Fed Chairman, once he takes over the reins.

Look out below.

As investors and traders, our job is to assess any situation and figure out how to make money from it… and not lose any money.

I see two ways we can make money off the dollar’s slump.

First, you can short the dollar using a “dollar down” ETF like the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish ETF (UDN).

Second, you can buy shares in multinational businesses that have a heavy concentration outside the U.S. They will be more competitive, which translates to more revenue and potentially more profits as well.

Here’s what you need to watch out for…

If you were planning a European vacation, it’s already costing you 10% more this year and will likely cost even more going forward. Plan any travel accordingly.

A weaker dollar also means imports could get more expensive than they already are thanks to tariffs. Watch out for companies that import their goods.

In a couple of weeks, I’ll let you know how the dollar faring against some Asian currencies as well.

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YOUR ACTION PLAN

The value of the U.S. dollar is just one of the critical economic indicators that we follow in Monument Trend Advisory. It has paid nice dividends for us as we positioned ourselves in several names that have done well as a result of a falling dollar, from gold stocks to companies that sell Kleenex.


FUN FACT FRIDAY

About 20% of the world’s oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane right next to Iran. Because of that, even rumors of conflict there can shake global markets.

That dynamic is happening right now. During the current Iran crisis in 2026, oil surged toward $80–$86 per barrel. This is a lesson that fear often moves markets more than the actual supply shock.

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One Stock That Actually Benefits From Geopolitical Instability https://mtatradeoftheday.com/one-stock-that-actually-benefits-from-geopolitical-instability/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/one-stock-that-actually-benefits-from-geopolitical-instability/#respond Fri, 06 Mar 2026 13:00:00 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20340 When the headlines are ugly, most traders freeze. I go hunting. It’s no secret Iran tensions are still roiling the markets as we head late into the week. If you’ll recall… I gave you my geopolitical trading strategy in Tuesday’s watchlist. That plan consists of finding overnight trade candidates to capture quick gains on volatility … Continued

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When the headlines are ugly, most traders freeze.

I go hunting.

It’s no secret Iran tensions are still roiling the markets as we head late into the week.

If you’ll recall… I gave you my geopolitical trading strategy in Tuesday’s watchlist.

That plan consists of finding overnight trade candidates to capture quick gains on volatility swings.

Case in point: Yesterday I closed a small overnight winner on American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) in The War Room.

As long as the Iran conflict keep roiling markets, I will continue looking for overnight candidates like AEO.

But I’m also looking for something bigger…

I want to find a stock that isn’t just surviving the geopolitical chaos. I want a stock that can actually thrive.

One company that fits the bill is Cadre Holdings (CDRE).

CDRE is a Jacksonville-based group that is a leader in the public safety supply chain. What they make tells the whole story.

Think holsters, tactical duty belts, riot gear, ballistic armor, field communications systems, forensic testing kits, and explosive ordnance disposal robots.

CDRE is a one-stop shop for law enforcement, federal agencies, and U.S. and international allied forces operating in complex threat environments.

With regional conflict risk rising in Iran, demand for CDRE’s products should soar.

That’s why I see CDRE as one of the top candidates for a spike on my board right now.

Action Plan: As long as war headlines keep sending indexes lower, I’ll continue to look for companies that could benefit.

CDRE is one stock that could sidestep war news.

It’s my top watchlist name heading into the weekend.

For more picks like CDRE with exact entries and exits, I recently revealed new research based on what I’m calling “unstoppable” stocks.

Over the last five years, my research shows these special plays could have delivered 119% returns on average… every single month.

Click here to learn more about this unique monthly strategy.

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Did Someone Quietly Rig the Market to Hit Dow 50,000? https://mtatradeoftheday.com/did-someone-quietly-rig-market-hit-dow-50000/ https://mtatradeoftheday.com/did-someone-quietly-rig-market-hit-dow-50000/#respond Thu, 05 Mar 2026 20:40:15 +0000 https://mtatradeoftheday.com/?p=20334 The largest Fed liquidity injection since COVID happened just days before Dow 50,000. Meanwhile, massive options positioning is artificially propping up the market until March 20.

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I talk about how things were “back in the day” a lot, but this week’s market activity has me thinking about some very specific events and “conspiracies.”

The kinds of things a trader never forgets, because they are usually signs of what’s coming next. And they’re usually things we want to avoid.

I’ve had that feeling lately. It’s tied to events that happened in 2000 and again in 2008. You know those time periods and how they ended.

That vibe I’m feeling right now all starts with one question… Is someone meddling with stock prices?

Is Someone Meddling With Stock Prices?

Just lean in for a minute and hear me out.

I’m not a conspiracy theory guy. But I do pay attention when the market starts behaving in ways that don’t make sense.

Let’s talk about the PPT.

The Plunge Protection Team (PPT) is the informal name for the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. This government body was created after the 1987 Black Monday crash to help maintain stability in U.S. financial markets.

The group brings together leaders from the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission – the pillars of the market’s regulatory framework.

Officially, the group exists to coordinate policy responses during periods of severe financial stress. That includes monitoring market conditions, ensuring liquidity in the banking system, and preventing systemic breakdowns that could threaten the broader economy.

But let’s be honest about how markets actually work.

While the PPT does not publicly acknowledge direct intervention in equity markets, its members control many of the levers that influence market stability. Liquidity injections, emergency lending programs, regulatory adjustments, and coordination with major financial institutions are all tools available to them.

And in moments when markets begin to spiral lower, those tools can produce the same effect as direct buying.

Think about it.

Nothing makes investors feel better than a sudden burst of “buy the dip” activity. It reassures the crowd that everything is fine.

The reality is that the PPT is a legitimate institution with a legitimate mandate. But it’s also difficult to ignore that modern administrations increasingly treat rising stock prices as a political and economic success metric.

When markets wobble, the incentive to quietly stabilize them is enormous.

Whether through policy, liquidity, or coordination, the result often looks the same – a market that suddenly finds support just as instability begins to threaten the system.

And that brings me to what has my attention.

Did the PPT Ring the Dow 50,000 Bell?

In late December, the Federal Reserve injected liquidity into the banking system through its overnight lending window.

It was the largest liquidity injection since the COVID-19 crisis.

The timing is what stands out.

The move occurred within four days of the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and just two days before the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved within 1% of the 50,000 level – a milestone widely promoted as proof of a strong economy.

Yet the Fed felt the need to inject the largest amount of liquidity since the pandemic.

That raises a simple question about the real health of the system that supposedly produced Dow 50,000.

Just saying.

Is the PPT trying to get you to buy the dip?

This is one of the reasons that “buy the dip” is starting to fail. The PPT doesn’t want to follow through on their buying, just get the buying started so investors like you and I will take over when we think that everyone else is buying.

I’ve seen it before, and we’ll certainly continue to see it over the next year.

Next, Markets Can Remain…

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

That famous quote is attributed to John Maynard Keynes, and it’s one of the most repeated lines in finance.

Most investors interpret it as a warning to anyone betting against a rising market. But Keynes’ quote cuts both ways.

Right now, we’re seeing credible threats to the underlying structure of the market.

  • Economic signals are deteriorating.
  • Geopolitical risks remain elevated.
  • Market leadership is breaking down.

Yet investors continue behaving as if everything is fine. Dare I say… irrationally?

Just look at what stocks have done over the past two months.

The S&P 500 has traded inside a tight 3% range, an unusually narrow band considering the number of macro risks currently in play.

The Nasdaq 100, Wall Street’s favorite index for its heavy technology weighting, has quietly entered an intermediate-term bear trend.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tells an even stranger story.

Yes, the Dow pushed above 50,000 on February 10. But look at the leadership that made it happen.

Chart: Dow Jones

The top five performers at that point were 3M (MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Cisco (CSCO), Honeywell (HON), and Amgen (AMGN).

Solid companies, sure. But hardly the kind of growth engines that typically drive a sustained bull market. These are better described as safety stocks.

Meanwhile, the worst performers were Salesforce (CRM), UnitedHealth (UNH), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Visa (V).

Those are the companies investors actually recognize, not safety trades, and they’re the ones that are dragging the market lower.

Chart: Dow Jones

That, my friends, is irrationality.

Now let’s go back to what Keynes said.

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

Right now, the irrationality is that investors believe the market is healthy. They’re whistling past the graveyard.

That specific phrase brings back memories for me. I used it frequently during my weekly CNBC interviews in 2007 as warning signs ahead of the financial crisis began appearing.

And here I am, literally watching Marc Benioff on CNBC live as I type this, smiling and waving to the crowd while talking about Salesforce’s bright outlook.

This display happened just moments after he said “I can’t really understand it” about the sell-off in software.

Image of Salesforce CEO

Meanwhile, Salesforce shares are down roughly 27% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing large software stocks.

Sidenote: Yes, that is a “30-Second Dance Party” button next to the TV. I encourage everyone to have one in their house as a great way to take a break from this irrational insanity.

That CNBC interview and optics matter for two reasons.

First, software companies are being punished because Wall Street increasingly expects them to be among the first to miss revenue and earnings targets if corporate spending slows during a pause in the AI boom.

Second, the optimism emanating from executives feels dangerously disconnected from what the market is actually doing.

The lesson here… Irrationality works both ways.

Right now, investors are irrationally optimistic about the market’s health. If that sentiment shifts – and it can happen quickly – we could be just a few headlines away from that irrationality turning against the bulls.

When that happens, prices don’t drift lower.

They reprice quickly as everyone realizes they’ve been whistling past the graveyard.

What Does a Smart Investor Do Now?

First, please stop buying the dips.

For years, investors were rewarded for buying pullbacks. That dynamic has changed.

Over the last two months, dip buyers have increasingly found themselves trapped as rallies quickly turn into “sell the rip” opportunities.

That shift in behavior is one of the classic signals that appears before deeper corrections.

Second, watch the levels and this one specific date.

Earlier this week, I walked through the market technicals with our Monument Traders Alliance LIVE audience.

Two charts and one date matter here.

The first chart shows the current technical backdrop for the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Chart: QQQ

Your notables:

  1. The QQQ’s 50-day moving average turned bearish on February 12, confirming a negative trend shift.
  2. The QQQ has repeatedly found support near the $600 level, encouraging traders to keep buying dips.

That support is about to face a different force.

The second chart shows the open interest positioning in QQQ options.

Chart: Nasdaq 100

The red columns represent put positions. Green columns represent calls.

Two things stand out:

  1. There is an extremely large put open interest at the $600 and $590 strikes for the March 20, 2026, expiration.
  2. Those positions act as a mechanical hedge for the market, making it difficult for QQQ to break below those levels meaningfully.

But that support expires on March 20. Circle that date on your calendar.

Once those options expire, the mechanical support they provide disappears.

At that point, the Nasdaq 100 could quickly slide toward $585 or lower, especially as earnings season approaches and geopolitical risks remain elevated.

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YOUR ACTION PLAN

The market is currently being held inside a tight range by a large options position centered on QQQ $600 and $590.

When those options expire on March 20, that artificial support disappears.

At that point, the market will have to stand on its own fundamentals.

If investor sentiment shifts at the same time – and it often does – the result could be a fast repricing lower.

That’s when the smiling CEOs stop whistling past the graveyard.

Protect profitable positions with simple stop-loss orders or consider adding portfolio hedges.

I walked through one example of that strategy during the Monument Traders Alliance LIVE session from two weeks ago. Click here to replay and review my strategy session.

I’ll continue tracking the market’s giant expiring hedge as March 20 approaches and share additional ideas for positioning ahead of what could be a volatile April.

The post Did Someone Quietly Rig the Market to Hit Dow 50,000? appeared first on Trade of the Day.

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