Back on September 2nd, while everyone was taking profits and worrying about September being historically brutal for stocks, AG was sitting at $9.20 – just 30 cents from its 52-week highs.

I’ll be honest – I was pumped about this setup. Daily squeeze, stacked smaller-timeframe squeezes on the 130-, 60-, and 78-minute charts. Bullish EMA alignment. Relative strength while everything else was getting beaten up.

Here’s what I wrote at the time:

“Look, I’ll be honest with you – I’m a self-confessed trading addict, and when I see a setup this loaded, it gets my blood pumping. We’re talking about a stock that’s crushed the market by 6x this year (+68% vs. the indices’ +10%), and it’s STILL coiled for another leg higher.”

Most traders were thinking “too extended.” I was thinking this is exactly where you want to be when the macro winds shift in your favor.

What Actually Happened

AG closed that day at $9.61. Fast forward to December 29th? $16.70.

That’s a 74% move from the September 2nd close. From the intraday level, I was watching at $9.20? We’re talking about an 81% winner.

That’s a 74% move from the September 2nd close. From the intraday level, I was watching at $9.20? We’re talking about an 81% winner.

But it wasn’t a straight line up:

• September: Broke through that $9.48 resistance I was watching, closed the month at $12.29
• October: Surged to $15.33 mid-month before pulling back to $12.77
• November: Dipped to $10.67 early on (testing everyone’s conviction), then recovered to $15.23
• December: Hit $17.91 before settling at $16.70

Meanwhile, silver itself exploded from $41/oz to over $72/oz – a 77% gain that briefly hit $83 before the recent pullback.

Why The Technical Setup Worked

Those stacked squeezes I was talking about? They delivered exactly what they’re supposed to deliver – explosive moves when multiple timeframes release simultaneously.

The daily squeeze was the foundation – real institutional accumulation building energy on a timeframe that actually matters. But having squeezes stacked on smaller timeframes meant when it broke, it broke hard.

The EMA alignment told us the trend was our friend. When multiple timeframes all agree on direction, you want to be on the right side.

And that relative strength? That was the tell. When a stock can hold near highs while everything else pukes, something fundamental is driving the outperformance.

What I Got Right (And What You Can Learn)

I trusted the technical setup over market sentiment. Everyone was worried about September being brutal. I focused on what the charts were telling me about this specific stock.

I recognized the macro backdrop. Fed rate cuts + inflation concerns = perfect storm for precious metals. The technicals just told me when to pay attention.

I didn’t get scared of “extended” moves. The best stocks often look extended before they get really extended. Strong gets stronger until it doesn’t.

I used multiple timeframe confirmation. One squeeze is interesting. Stacked squeezes across multiple timeframes? That’s when you get moves that make your quarter.

The Reality Check

Look, I didn’t nail the exact top or catch every swing. Nobody does. But the core thesis played out exactly as the setup suggested it would.

The breakout above $9.48 happened. The squeezes fired. The move was violent and sustained. Everything the technical analysis said would happen, happened.

Your Action Plan

As you plan for next year, remember: the market rewards those who can identify high-probability setups and have the conviction to act on them.

Don’t let “too extended” thinking keep you out of strong moves. Don’t let September fears override January-August performance. Don’t ignore relative strength just because something’s at highs.

The best trades often feel uncomfortable at first. They should. If everyone were comfortable, there wouldn’t be an opportunity.

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