How I’m Playing the Dollar’s 10% Drop
The stated goal of the U.S. government is to weaken the U.S. dollar in order to boost exports.
It’s not a bad policy. I saw firsthand on my recent trip to Europe, where everything cost about 10% more than it did last year.
This also tracks the move in the dollar, which is down 10% versus the euro and British pound.
For a few of our holdings, like Rolls Royce (RYCEY), this has meant an automatic 10% boost in U.S. dollar share prices since the shares are denominated in pounds.
But there’s another angle to the dollar weakness…
The Crocs Play
Today in The War Room, I recommended members jump into CROX using a spread I engineered.
Ugly is back in style – not necessarily here in the U.S., but overseas.
Here’s what CROX reported on its latest earnings call…
- North America revenues decreased 7.4% to $436 million
- International revenues increased 14.1% to $332 million (11.0% on a constant currency basis)
This is a powerful signal. U.S. dollar weakness is driving international sales higher, along with the fashion trend favoring their products.
I expect this dynamic to strengthen this year and into next year.
Why? The U.S. is embarking on a weak dollar/low interest rate policy. The newly nominated Fed Chairman is widely expected to pursue lower rates, working in tandem with a Treasury Secretary who wants a weaker dollar.
With the dollar weakening, you should focus part of your portfolio on companies that sell a lot overseas.
Those companies include…
- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- Kimberly Clark (KMB)
- Deckers (DECK)
- Crocs (CROX)
- Just about every U.S. conglomerate that derives a big chunk of sales overseas.
And, if you are planning that European vacation… get going sooner than later. Your dollar will stretch further now than it will in six months.
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YOUR ACTION PLAN
Trends like the weaker dollar are what Bryan and I follow every week in Monument Trend Advisory. Our next livestream is Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.
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