Twenty-six consecutive years of dividend increases. That is CNQ.

Most oil companies have to keep drilling new wells just to keep production flat. Canadian Natural Resources does not work that way.

Its assets are oil sands in Western Canada, and oil sands produce at steady rates for decades from the same wells.

No constant re-drilling. No chasing new reserves every year. Just production, and the cash flow that comes with it.

That stability shows up in the numbers. Production hit a record 1.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, up 15% year over year. Q4 earnings came in 17% above estimates and 2026 guidance was raised. As of yesterday’s close, the stock was up 45% year to date while the broad market was lower.

A Raymond James analyst flagged this recently as unusual.

CNQ has among the lowest sensitivity to oil price swings of any major energy name. It does not need $120 oil to work.

The run happened anyway. When a stock moves that much with that little commodity leverage behind it, the chart is doing the talking.

As of yesterday’s close, the chart was clean.

As of yesterday’s close, the EMAs were stacked bullish on both the daily and weekly. EMA stands for exponential moving average, a line that tracks where price has been weighted toward recent action. Stacked means the shorter ones are above the longer ones, and price sits above all of them on two timeframes at once. The 200-day moving average is at $35. The stock was trading near $49.

One thing worth addressing this morning.

Oil futures are getting hit hard. Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran overnight, and crude dropped more than 16%, from $117 down to below $95. That war premium that had been propping up energy stocks is coming off fast.

CNQ will feel that at the open today.

But here is the part that matters. CNQ’s oil sands do not need $115 oil to generate cash. The economics work at much lower prices because oil sands production costs are among the most stable in the industry. This is not a shale driller that needs high prices to justify the next well. The barrels keep flowing either way.

A selloff driven by a ceasefire headline is not the same as a broken thesis.

As of yesterday’s close, the daily squeeze was active on CNQ. A squeeze happens when a stock compresses into a tight range, like a coil under pressure. It had not fired yet. That is the setup. We are watching for the trigger.

Trend. Pattern. Squeeze. All three were present yesterday. We confirm at the open.

One more thing worth knowing. CNQ beat Q4 earnings estimates by 17%. That kind of beat does not just move the stock once.

Research going back to 1968 shows that when a company crushes earnings, big institutions continue buying for days or weeks afterward because they cannot move that much money all at once.

That steady institutional buying keeps pushing the stock higher long after the announcement. CNQ is already in that window.

Your Action Plan

I have no position in CNQ yet. If it dips at the open on oil news, the setup gets more interesting, not less. That is exactly the kind of entry the system is designed to find.

No trigger, no trade. Still watching.

And look, if you want to understand why a setup like CNQ gets me excited…

I just put together something that explains everything.

It’s the same force I’ve been trading for years. The Earnings Profit Surge. A pattern that’s been documented since 1968 — confirmed by Harvard, MIT, and the Federal Reserve. And it’s the reason I was able to turn $37,000 into $2.7 million in four years, starting with zero Wall Street connections.

I’m a former construction worker. I figured this out the hard way.

But once I did — and once I built a system around it — everything changed. I’ve never laid it all out quite like this before. How the system works. Why institutions can’t stop buying after a big earnings beat. How a $65 trade can return 100% in a single day.

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If you’d like to learn more about how I trade earnings winners, check this out.