The CEO Called the Bottom. The Earnings Proved It. Now the Chart Is Confirming It.
For three years, farmers pulled back.
Input costs ran too high, and commodity prices ran too low. The big green tractors sat on dealer lots.
Deere felt it all — full-year net income dropped 29% in fiscal 2025 as the agricultural downcycle ground through its core business.
Then, in December, CEO John May made a call: 2026 is the bottom.
The Earnings Made It Real
Calling the bottom is one thing. Proving it is another.
In February, Deere reported Q1 2026 earnings. The street expected continued weakness.
What they got: EPS of $2.42 against a $2.02 estimate, a 20% beat. Revenue of $9.61 billion against $7.59 billion expected, a 26% beat. The Construction and Forestry order bank rose more than 50% in a single quarter. Large tractor orders extended into Q4.
The stock gapped up 12% on the print. One quarter like that does not happen by accident. The story had changed.
Yesterday, a Wall Street analyst upgraded DE and cited the same thesis — the agricultural cycle may be nearing its bottom.
DE closed up +5%. The market is repricing this stock because the fundamentals continue to support the thesis.
What the Chart Is Saying
When fundamentals turn before mainstream notices, the chart catches it first. DE’s chart has been telling this story for weeks.
The 8-day EMA sits at $580. The 20-day EMA sits at $579. The 200-day SMA sits at $509. Yesterday, the price was around $608.
EMAs, or exponential moving averages, track a stock’s average closing price over a set period and give more weight to recent prices. When shorter EMAs sit above longer ones and all of them sit below the price, the trend is intact across every timeframe that matters.
The weekly EMAs are stacked, too. This trend has been building for months.
The Squeeze
After the February earnings gap, DE spent weeks compressing. The 8-day EMA and 20-day EMA pinched tight around $579-$580.
Price coiled above them. Volume dried up.
That is the squeeze. When price compresses between tightening moving averages, energy builds until it releases. When a squeeze fires on a stock with stacked EMAs and a strong fundamental story, that is the combination my system is designed to find.
The RSI read 62.
RSI, or Relative Strength Index, measures momentum on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings above 70 signal overbought. At 62, DE has room to run.
My system is called TPS — Trend, Pattern, Squeeze. I work through each step in order, and I do not enter until all three are confirmed and the trigger fires.
The setup is there, but given yesterday’s huge market move, I want to see how things play out today before making a decision.
Your Action Plan
Earnings winners with stacked EMAs and a fundamental catalyst behind them are exactly what I built Profit Surge Trader to find.
If you want to trade alongside that process, that is what Profit Surge Trader is for.
