Over the last two weeks, names like IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) have seen a surge in trading activity.

Quantum stocks don’t move like this unless something bigger is shifting.

Capital is rotating into high-risk, high-reward areas of the market.

Speculation is back.

Investors rotated into defensive positioning as geopolitical risks, rate concerns, and AI bubble fears drained liquidity from early-stage growth names. That environment punished nearly every speculative corner of the market.

But markets don’t turn when fundamentals improve. They turn when capital flows shift back to speculative areas of the market.

And right now, the tape is telling you that investors are willing to take risk again.

Commandment No. 9

The development of speculative interest lines up with one of my “Ten Commandments of Trading”:

Speculation – not fundamentals – drives stock prices.

Stocks are driven higher because investors are willing to put $1 into the market or stocks with the expectation that they will get $1.10 back. They’re speculating on higher prices.

It’s that simple.

Fundamentals build long-term narratives. Yes, they are needed to confirm speculation, but speculation drives near-term prices and is often the catalyst for new bull runs in stocks.

It all comes down to the idea that investors trade what they believe, not what accountants report.

Quantum Computing Represents Pure Speculation

We’ve seen this move before.

In the early days of the AI trade, capital flooded into companies tied to the theme long before revenues justified valuations. The narrative came first. The fundamentals followed later.

Stocks like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), and Amazon (AMZN) didn’t wait for earnings to move. They moved on expectations.

That’s how bull markets begin.

Now, quantum computing stocks maybe following the same path.

Last year gave us a preview. IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) delivered huge gains, not because of profitability, but because of future potential and speculation.

That run ended when speculation collapsed in November.

But it’s back.

The move in quantum stocks is a shift in market sentiment, not a fundamental breakout. Capital is starting to rotate back into early-stage names where upside is driven by possibility, not performance.

That’s where the quantum stocks live.

Volatility, sharp pullbacks, and narrative swings come with the territory.

But if speculation builds, price will follow along with renewed bullish trends.

Quantum Computing 101 (Condensed)

Quantum computing isn’t new, but it’s finally becoming investable.

The concept dates back to the 1980s, when physicists like Richard Feynman proposed using quantum mechanics to process information. For decades, the idea remained theoretical due to hardware limitations.

That’s changed.

Advances in superconducting qubits, ion traps, and quantum algorithms have pushed the industry into early-stage commercialization. Companies like IBM and Alphabet are racing to scale systems capable of solving real-world problems.

We’re still early, but no longer in the concept phase.

That’s why investors are eager to return to these names as market uncertainty subsides.

Quantum Stocks Are Still in Discovery Mode

Quantum stocks are in what I call Discovery Mode.

This is the phase where a stock attracts new capital based on potential, not proven results. Volume expands, volatility increases, and price becomes highly sensitive to sentiment and technical levels.

It’s where the biggest opportunities and risks both exist.

In Discovery Mode:

• Price moves faster than fundamentals
• Volatility increases
• Technical levels matter more than valuation

If you’re trading this group, understand this…

Price action is the signal. Fundamentals are context, not the driver.

IonQ: A Real-Time Example of Discovery Mode

IonQ is a textbook example.

The company is still early. Revenue is growing over 100% year-over-year, but profitability remains distant. Like most companies in this space, it’s investing aggressively in long-term development.

Expectations are what’s driving the stock, not current results.

IonQ went public around $11 and quickly rallied over 200% on partnership announcements and commercialization potential. That move wasn’t about earnings, it was about belief.

The same dynamic is playing out again.

Recent price action tells the story:

• Sharp selloff
• Slow, bottom-building process leading to buying
• Increased price and volume

From a technical standpoint, key levels are clear:

• $50 → Resistance
• $40 → Near-term pivot
• $30 → Critical support

IONQ’s 50-day moving average is in the process of shifting into a new bullish trend. This will be the first since September 2025. That bull market trend resulted in a 95% rally in just one month.

The stock’s 200-day moving average is currently sitting just above the stock at $46.45. A move above that long-term trendline will spark another round of buying interest from the quant and technical traders out there.

And if that happens, expect FOMO-driven acceleration as retail investors begin to hear about a renewal in quantum computing stocks.

My 4-6 week target on IONQ is a move to $50. That’s 12% higher than today’s price.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

The next few weeks will be volatile.

That’s the nature of Discovery Stage stocks.

We’re going to see sharp rallies, fast pullbacks, and constant narrative shifts. But there’s only one thing that will determine direction… price action.

Investors will be looking for opportunities to buy into these names on weakness from the current two-week pop. That will create a feedback loop where dips get bought as long as speculation remains intact.

Upcoming catalysts, including earnings and forward guidance, will matter, but not because of current results, only because they will fortify investor’s beliefs in the quantum movement.

Watch price and technical activity for your timing signals. That’s how Discovery Phase stocks work.

If you want more info on how to trade earnings season, I just recorded this playbook for you to watch.