A weak dollar is the stated policy of the U.S. government… no matter what it says publicly.

One day, the Treasury Secretary says a strong dollar is important. Not the goal, mind you, but important. There’s a difference.

The next day, President Trump contradicts the Secretary by publicly stating that a weaker U.S. dollar is good for trade.

Who are you going to believe?

That’s why I do my own research. And despite the greenback falling sharply since the beginning of 2025… I’m convinced the dollar has much more room to drop.

When I travel, I use a simple test to determine whether the dollar is cheap or expensive.

I call it the “Big Mac” test.

Anyone can do it… by simply comparing what a Big Mac meal costs in the U.S. versus places overseas.

The second major currency worldwide is the euro. And right behind the euro are currencies like pound, the yen, and the yuan. The yuan less so because it doesn’t really behave like a free floating currency.

Here’s what I learned… On a recent trip to Europe, I stopped in at several McDonald’s restaurants in three Spanish cities and in London.

In Spain, a Big Mac meal cost around $9.50. In London, it was around $10.

In the U.S., it’s well over $10 in some places and as much as $12 in cities (comparable to London and Barcelona).

A few years ago, it would not have been close. The Big Mac meal stateside was always much cheaper.

You may scoff at this metric, but magazines like The Economist have been publishing the “Big Mac Index” for decades. Many investors and economists follow it religiously.

By this measure alone, the U.S. dollar could easily fall another 10% from here to make it competitive.

But there’s more.

The Fed is under pressure to lower rates and will likely do so a couple more times this year under the new Fed Chairman, once he takes over the reins.

Look out below.

As investors and traders, our job is to assess any situation and figure out how to make money from it… and not lose any money.

I see two ways we can make money off the dollar’s slump.

First, you can short the dollar using a “dollar down” ETF like the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bearish ETF (UDN).

Second, you can buy shares in multinational businesses that have a heavy concentration outside the U.S. They will be more competitive, which translates to more revenue and potentially more profits as well.

Here’s what you need to watch out for…

If you were planning a European vacation, it’s already costing you 10% more this year and will likely cost even more going forward. Plan any travel accordingly.

A weaker dollar also means imports could get more expensive than they already are thanks to tariffs. Watch out for companies that import their goods.

In a couple of weeks, I’ll let you know how the dollar faring against some Asian currencies as well.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

The value of the U.S. dollar is just one of the critical economic indicators that we follow in Monument Trend Advisory. It has paid nice dividends for us as we positioned ourselves in several names that have done well as a result of a falling dollar, from gold stocks to companies that sell Kleenex.

FUN FACT FRIDAY

About 20% of the world’s oil supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane right next to Iran. Because of that, even rumors of conflict there can shake global markets.

That dynamic is happening right now. During the current Iran crisis in 2026, oil surged toward $80–$86 per barrel. This is a lesson that fear often moves markets more than the actual supply shock.