It’s a big week for the markets…

First off, the Fed will announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday.

Many Fed watchers expect it to raise the benchmark rate by a quarter of a point, which would be a smaller hike than the past few increases. But again, most of the focus will be on what Chairman Jerome Powell says about the Fed’s outlook.

The very next day, it’ll be a massive earnings release day for tech companies…

Google, Amazon, Qualcomm and Apple will all report earnings after the close on Thursday.

Combine the Fed’s language with this massive tech earnings day… and that could set the directional bias of the markets for the entire month of February.

Going into this Wednesday/Thursday catalyst, it’s important to know…

There have been only two occasions since the end of WWII that the S&P 500 has posted consecutive years of losses: once in 1973 and 1974 and then again from 2000 to 2002.

Aside from that, every other down year was followed by gains the next year.

Given that we saw widespread losses in 2022, history shows that the odds of a 2023 upside year are on our side. Of course, nothing is guaranteed – but these historical market trends are still worth noting.

Add it all up… and how should you play it?

YOUR ACTION PLAN

With all the uncertainty surrounding tech earnings and the Fed, the tactical play is to move back into oil refiners. Why? Refinery margins. Also referred to as the “crack spread,” the refinery margin is the price difference between crude oil and refined products like gasoline. Lately, that spread has ballooned as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been a major benefit to oil refiners. Right now, our favorite setup comes on Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC).

To see how we’re currently trading it, we invite you to join us inside The War Room. We have an 86% win rate in 2023, and right now we’re guaranteeing members will receive 252 winning trades in their first 12 months of membership.

Click here to unlock The War Room.

MONDAY MARKET MINUTE

• This Week Is a Big Test. The January pop will get tested this week as we await the Fed’s latest interest rate hike on Wednesday. The Fed’s decision, combined with big tech earnings announcements, should set the tone for directional bias headed into February.
• Amazon Trending Down. The retail giant dipped 1% in premarket after Barclays analyst Ross Sandler lowered the firm’s price target on shares from $140 to $130 and maintained an “Overweight” rating.
• Say It Pain’t So! Karim reported a $500K insider buy from the CEO/chairman of Sherwin-Williams (SHW) this morning. To get real-time updates on insider plays, follow @tradeforreal on Twitter.