The Oil Trade Everyone Is Missing Has Nothing to Do With Oil Prices.

Plains All American Pipeline (PAA) started rallying before the Iran war.

That is the first thing worth knowing about this setup. Everyone watching energy stocks right now is thinking about oil prices, the strait, the ceasefire.

PAA was already moving higher before any of that happened. The business does not care about the price of oil the way you think it does.

It’s a midstream pipeline operator. It owns over 20,000 miles of pipeline moving more than 8 million barrels of crude oil per day, primarily out of the Permian Basin.

The company does not drill. It does not produce. It moves oil from where it comes out of the ground to where it needs to go, and it gets paid a fee for every barrel that passes through.

That fee does not change based on whether crude is at $70 or $120. Eighty-five percent of PAA’s 2026 EBITDA comes from fee-for-service contracts with an average term of five years. The company guided for $2.75 billion in adjusted EBITDA this year, with 13% growth in the crude segment.

This is infrastructure, not a commodity bet.

The company raised its distribution 10% last quarter to $1.67 per unit annualized. At the current price of $21.93 that is a 7.6% yield.

PAA has grown its distribution from $0.72 per unit in 2022 to $1.67 today, a 19% compound annual growth rate over four years. That is not a stock grinding sideways. That is a business returning more cash to unitholders every year while the stock follows it higher.

Now look at the chart.

The EMAs are stacked on both the daily and the weekly timeframe. The 8-day EMA is above the 20-day EMA, both are trending higher, and price is well above the 200-day moving average at $16. When you see that alignment across timeframes, it means the trend is confirmed at multiple levels, not just one.

RSI is sitting at 68.76. Not overbought. There is room to run before this stock gets extended.

The squeeze has not fired on the daily yet. A squeeze is when a stock’s price compresses into an increasingly tight range, building energy before a directional move. The tighter the coil, the more significant the release tends to be.

Your Action Plan

I do not have a position in PAA. I trade faster-moving momentum stocks, and this one grinds. But if you are the kind of investor who likes a clean trend, a business with predictable cash flows, and a 7.6% yield while you wait, this setup checks every box on my list.

If you want to know what I’m trading, I will post it in Daily Profits Live.

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