A Vulnerable Electric Grid Means This Stock is in Play

Record power outages. Surging residential sales. Expanding margins.

When these three forces align, experienced traders take notice.

That’s exactly what happened in Generac’s (GNRC) latest earnings report, where residential product sales surged 28% year-over-year amid unprecedented grid instability.

Yesterday’s Q3 earnings tell a story that every serious trader needs to understand:

  • Residential sales: Up 28% to $723 million
  • Net income: Surged 89% to $1.89 per share
  • Gross margins: Expanded 510 basis points to 40.2%
  • Free cash flow: Jumped 57% to $184 million

Here’s the catalyst that changes everything:

The U.S. just recorded its highest level of power outage hours through September since tracking began in 2010. This isn’t a blip. It’s validation of our core thesis.

We’re witnessing a perfect storm of grid vulnerability:

  • Critical infrastructure reaching 40+ years of service life
  • Renewable energy adoption up 12.8% year-over-year
  • Peak electricity demand hitting new records monthly
  • Weather-related outages increasing 83% compared to 2023

Now, let’s talk timing.

In The War Room, we’ve traded GNRC’s seasonal pattern with remarkable consistency.

Including a play which delivered a 35% gain in just 6 trading days during hurricane season.

The pattern is simple but powerful:

  • Accumulate during winter lows (December-March)
  • Hold through spring positioning (March-May)
  • Capitalize on hurricane season concerns (June-September)
  • Take profits as fear peaks (August-October)

Value Proposition

Let’s break down why GNRC’s setup matters right now:

  1. Record Grid Vulnerability
  • Highest power outage hours through first nine months since 2010
  • Growing grid stress from renewable energy adoption
  • Accelerating electricity demand creating supply-demand imbalances
  1. Strong Operational Performance
  • Q3 residential sales surged 28% to $723 million
  • Core sales growth of 9% (excluding acquisitions and currency)
  • Free cash flow of $184 million vs. $117 million last year
  1. Management’s Forward View
  • Raised full-year sales guidance to 5-9% growth
  • Expanded margin expectations to 17.5-18.5%
  • Continued share repurchases ($102 million in Q3)

Your Action Plan:

This is a strategic entry opportunity, but timing is everything.

While Q3’s results are impressive, veteran traders know the real money is made by positioning before the seasonal surge.

I’m watching for an optimal entry window between December 2024 and March 2025.

This historically offers the best risk-reward for capturing the pre-hurricane season momentum.

In The War Room, we don’t just trade – we hunt for asymmetric opportunities where historical patterns meet fundamental catalysts.

Speaking of hunting for opportunities…

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