Your Portfolio vs the Fed (Sept. 17th)
You shouldn’t be cutting interest rates if you’re at the same time claiming how great the economy is.
So someone’s either lying… or it’s a problem for the market.
And that contradiction is exactly why this September FOMC meeting isn’t like the routine announcements we’ve seen over the past few years.
Look, I’ve been watching Fed meetings for 30 years, and I can tell you when something’s different.
The setup heading into this announcement has all the ingredients for serious market disruption.
Here’s why this meeting matters more than any we’ll see for the next decade:
1. The Jobs Data Is Screaming Recession While The White House Claims Victory
The August jobs report was an absolute disaster – only 22,000 new jobs when everyone expected way more. But here’s the kicker: they just revised down previous months by 911,000 jobs.
That’s the largest downward revision on record.
Think about that for a second. We’ve been making investment decisions based on data that was off by nearly a million jobs. And now unemployment is at 4.3% – the highest since 2021.
So if the economy is as strong as they keep telling us, why are we hemorrhaging jobs?
The Fed’s in an impossible position here.
They either admit the economy is weaker than advertised, or they keep rates high while employment collapses.
Either way, volatility is coming.
2. Trump’s Tariff War Is Creating Inflation The Fed Can’t Control
We’re looking at the highest tariff rates since the Great Depression – 18% average across the board. Chinese goods hit with 20%, Mexican imports at 25%. And guess what? Companies are passing these costs straight to consumers.
The August CPI just jumped 0.4% in one month – double what we saw in July. Annual inflation is back at 2.9% and climbing.
But here’s where it gets interesting: businesses are absorbing some of these costs for now, which means the real inflationary impact hasn’t even hit yet. When companies can’t eat these tariff costs anymore, prices are going to spike hard.
The Fed’s trying to stimulate an economy while tariffs are simultaneously stoking inflation. That’s not a recipe for smooth sailing – that’s a recipe for chaos.
3. The Dollar Is Collapsing And Rate Cuts Will Make It Worse
Down 11% since June. The DXY is sitting around 97-98, and every hint of rate cuts sends it lower.
Now, a weaker dollar isn’t always bad, but when it’s falling this fast while we’re dealing with inflation from tariffs, you’ve got a real problem. Import costs go up, which feeds more inflation, which puts more pressure on the Fed to… what exactly?
Raise rates to defend the dollar? That kills the jobs market. Cut rates to help employment? That destroys the dollar and stokes inflation.
There’s no clean way out of this mess. And when central banks get boxed in like this, markets get ugly fast.
4. The Trump-Powell Feud Is Making Everything Political
Trump’s been calling Powell “Too Late,” “Too Stupid,” and “Too Political.” He fired the BLS Commissioner over jobs data he didn’t like, claiming the numbers were “rigged.”
Look, I don’t care about the politics, but I do care about what this means for markets.
When the Fed’s independence gets questioned, when data integrity gets attacked, when you don’t know who to trust – that’s when volatility explodes.
We’re already seeing it.
The market doesn’t know how to price risk when the fundamental data might be compromised. And this meeting is happening right in the middle of that uncertainty.
5. They’re Setting Long-Term Policy With Completely Unreliable Information
This isn’t just about one rate decision. They’re releasing updated economic projections through 2028. They’re essentially trying to map out the next four years of monetary policy.
But based on what data?
Jobs numbers that get revised down by a million? Inflation readings that don’t capture the full tariff impact yet? A dollar that’s in free fall?
The Fed is flying blind, and they’re making decisions that will impact every investment, every mortgage rate, every business decision for years to come.
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YOUR ACTION PLAN
Look, I’ve been through enough market cycles to know when something big is brewing. And all of these factors coming together at once? That’s not normal.
That’s the kind of setup that creates the violent moves we saw in 2008, 2020, or even going back to the early 2000s.
The difference is, this time we can see it coming.
And September 17th? That’s when it all comes to a head.
Trump versus Powell. The ultimate heavyweight bout.
Will JPow cave to the pressure and cut rates?
Or will he stick it to Trump after months of being called “Too Stupid” on Truth Social?
Either way… the aftershocks are gonna be MASSIVE.
That’s why Bryan Bottarelli and I are hosting a live FOMC Watch Party on September 17 at 1 p.m. ET– one hour before the announcement drops.
We’ll break down every possible scenario in real time… show you exactly what to watch for… and position you to profit from whatever chaos erupts.
Because here’s the thing:
The volatility is coming whether you’re ready for it or not.
The question is: are you going to profit from it, or get crushed by it?
Join the FREE FOMC Watch Party – September 17 @ 1 p.m. ET
The most important Fed meeting in decades deserves your full attention.
Don’t trade it blind.
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