How I Picked the Market Bottom

By Nathan Bear

April 23, 2024

Hey gang,

With over a thousand new traders in my FREE Daily Profits LIVE Open House on Monday, I felt A LOT of pressure to show them what a millionaire trader could do.

So, imagine how pumped I got when I nailed the market low within a few pennies and spiked this quick trade in Google (GOOGL).

To someone who wasn’t in the room, it might sound like boasting or a bunch of bologna.

After all, there are plenty of Twitter jockeys willing to tell you how they called a bottom after the fact.

But as anyone who attended this free event can tell you, it was a straightforward process built on robust analysis and common sense.

You might have missed out on this magical moment.

However, you can still grab a spot to join me every day for the rest of this week.

To get you up to speed, I’m going to walk you through my entire analysis.

This is more than just a high-level view of why the market bottomed, but how I traded it and why I chose Google.

Creating Context

After last week’s huge down move, you probably felt the urge to start slinging trades left and right Monday morning.

But that’s not how I approached things.

Instead of jumping at every opportunity, I sat back and took stock of where everything stood.

I want to briefly show you the weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ.

Last week’s close established the first large reversal candle since 2022.

You could argue we had some decent pullbacks in 2023. But those took 2-3 weeks to stitch together what markets did in one.

Now, let’s move down to the daily chart, where I want to highlight two items.

First, all the moving averages have begun to flip.

The 8-period EMA is below the 200-period, which is below the 55-period, which signals bearishness.

Second, the squeeze that built up (shown at the bottom with the red dots) fired short (dots turned green). This releases the energy to the downside.

Taken together, this paints a bearish outlook for the markets, but with the possibility of a short-term bounce.

But you probably knew that already.

So, here’s how I found the bottom.

3-Way Bounce

Let’s go back to the daily chart of the QQQ and take a closer look.

If you look closely, there was a gap left open at $412.99.

Last week’s low came up $0.08 short of that spot.

Gap fills can often act as support or resistance to the market.

And truth be told, I expected the market to fill the gap today on the QQQ.

It bounced before then.

That’s fine because I started my GOOGL trade before then with just one call contract just in case it never filled.

Now, I want you to take a look at the weekly chart of the QQQ with me again.

Notice how it hit the 55-period moving average on the weekly chart (light blue line)?

Markets tend to respect those levels and not just blast through them. So, that adds to another bit of support.

Next, I want you to look at the 5-minute chart of the QQQ below.

After opening higher, the QQQ was close to filling the gap left by Friday’s close, which can create a bounce.

Lastly, I want to show you the same chart but zoomed out.

This pattern is a reverse head and shoulders. It kind of looks like a double bottom.

When these patterns form, they often lead to a price reversal and thrust higher equal to the distance between the two peaks on the shoulder down to the top of the head.

The gap fill, the moving average, and the pattern all said to me there was a possibility of a reversal, but not guaranteed.

So, here’s how I chose to play this.

GOOGL Calls

Early in the day, Google’s stock was up more than 1% relative to the Nasdaq 100, while the QQQ was up 0.5%.

The vertical line in the chart below shows where the stock opened:

The Nasdaq didn’t have very far to go to fill its gap. But Google was a good distance away.

You might assume this means it could fall further. However, I take it as a sign of strength since people are willing to buy the stock at a higher percentage gain than other stocks.

So, when I played the market bounce, I chose to buy Google calls.

I started with one contract as the QQQ filled the gap left open from Friday’s close. And I was prepared to buy more Google calls if the market kept moving lower down to the gap at 412.99 I discussed earlier.

However, things turned quickly as all the stocks bounced, creating a nice gain in a matter of minutes.