I get asked all the time: “Nate, what’s your edge?”

People expect me to say something complicated. Some proprietary algorithm. A secret screener. A Bloomberg terminal feed nobody else has.

The answer is simpler than that. I look at the charts, I read the Form 4s, and I let the people who know more than me do most of the talking.

Right now, Nike (NKE) is practically shouting.

The Trend Nobody Wants to Touch

NKE has been a falling knife for two years. Down from $115 in 2023 to a 52-week low of $42.09 this past April. That’s a 63% haircut on one of the most recognized brands on earth.

Most people look at that chart and run the other way.

I look at that chart and I see a trend that’s getting exhausted.

Here’s what I mean. A stock doesn’t fall forever. At some point, every downtrend runs out of sellers.

The chart starts to flatten. The lower highs and lower lows stop making new extremes. The volatility compresses.

And if you’re paying attention, you can see that inflection point before the crowd does.

NKE is sitting right there. Trading around $44–$45, basically flat for six weeks.