Why Haven’t We Entered a Recession? Two Words…
As the major market averages climb a wall of worry…
I’ve been getting the same question a lot lately.
Why haven’t we entered a recession yet?
It’s a fair question.
After all, pending home sales (the number of signed contracts on existing homes) just dropped 1.5% from September to October.
That decline took this metric down to its lowest level since the National Association of Realtors began tracking it in 2001…
Which means pending home sales are worse right now than they were during the financial crisis over a decade ago.
On top of that, sales are down 8.5% since October of last year.
It’s easy to understand why housing demand has hit rock bottom.
When the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. briefly moved above 8% in October, pending sales fell from September’s figures in every region but the Northeast.
And compared with where they were a year ago, sales are down in every geographic location.
But here’s the odd part…
Despite it all, the major market averages rallied in November.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high for the year today…
And it closed out November with an 8% gain.
The S&P 500 also closed November up more than 8%.
And the Nasdaq popped 10%!
When the calendar flipped over to December, November 2023 went down as the best market month since October 2022.
So… what gives?
How can the major market averages blast to new highs… at a time when housing is in the dumps?
YOUR ACTION PLAN
There are many reasons we’re not in a recession – many of which revolve around the resiliency of the U.S. consumer and low unemployment rates.
But my answer for you today is much simpler.
It’s all explained in the YouTube video short below. Check it out!
P.S. If you want to start following along with me while I trade, I invite you to join me in The War Room. Over the past two days, I closed three double-digit winners, including a 63% winner on Carvana (CVNA) in less than 24 hours, a 40% winner on Foot Locker (FL) in less than 24 hours and a 76% winner on Pure Storage (PSTG) in one day.
FUN FACT FRIDAY
It takes about one hour for a snowflake to reach the ground.