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– Stephen Prior, Publisher

Without Air Products most semiconductor fabs would shut down within days.

The company produces the industrial gases that advanced chip manufacturing cannot function without. Nitrogen prevents contamination during production.

Argon enables the etching process. Hydrogen runs throughout the fabrication sequence. These are not optional inputs. They are the invisible infrastructure underneath every AI chip that NVIDIA, AMD, and TSMC manufactures.

Air Products recently signed a $900 million agreement to supply ultra-high purity versions of these gases to one of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers at its advanced fabs in Taiwan.

As AI chip demand scales, the fabs building those chips need more of exactly what Air Products sells under long-term take-or-pay contracts, meaning customers commit to minimum purchase volumes regardless of market conditions.

The NASA angle adds a second structural layer.

Air Products holds over $140 million in liquid hydrogen supply contracts with the space agency, including the recent first fill of the world’s largest hydrogen sphere at Kennedy Space Center.

It just announced a new air separation facility in Cocoa, Florida, producing liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon, targeted to be online in 2028 and positioned to serve space launch providers across the region. The same gases powering rocket launches are powering the AI infrastructure buildout. Air Products sits at the intersection of both.

The stock is up 22.8 percent year to date, outperforming the broader market, after recovering from December lows near $230.

That recovery has rebuilt the technical structure in a way worth watching closely.

The trend check starts with the moving averages. Price is at $303.35, sitting above the 8-day EMA at $300.15, which is above the 20-day EMA at $296.42, which is above the 200-day simple moving average at $274.40.

The 200-day tracks the average closing price over the last 200 sessions and serves as the clearest line between a healthy trend and a broken one.

That stacked structure holds on both the daily and the weekly timeframe, meaning two independent timeframes are confirming the same direction.

The pattern developing on top of that trend is what has my attention. A squeeze is forming on the daily chart. A squeeze occurs when Bollinger Bands, which measure how far price has moved from its average, compress inside the Keltner Channels, which track volatility using the average daily range.

When the bands tighten inside the channels, momentum is coiling before a directional release. The squeeze on Air Products is in its early stages right now. RSI is at 63.80, building without being stretched into overbought territory.

The bear case is real. Air Products carries meaningful debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.18.

The company reported negative income in its most recent period as it invests heavily in large-scale hydrogen projects that have not yet reached full production. If those projects face execution delays, the stock will feel it.

Your Action Plan

Earnings are tomorrow April 30th before the open.

This is a setup to watch after the report rather than before it.

If Air Products delivers clean numbers and the stacked EMA structure holds into the close, a clean daily close back above the 8-day EMA at $300 on volume is the trigger. A break below the 20-day EMA at $296 on a closing basis after earnings tells me to step aside and wait for a new base to form.

What I will be looking for specifically is if it beats its expected move by a considerable amount.

If it can do that, there’s a trade there. If you want to know the details of how that trade works, and how it’s helped me turn a five-figure trading account into multiple seven-figures, click here to learn more.