While everyone will be dissecting every word from today’s FOMC announcement, they’re missing the bigger story that’s been building for weeks.

Meanwhile, something way more important is happening right under our noses. And almost nobody’s paying attention.

I’m talking about the bond market. Specifically, what it’s NOT doing.

The Bond Market Rules Everything

Look, I get it. War sells papers. Geopolitical drama gets clicks. But here’s what +30 years of trading has taught me – the bond market tells you what’s really going on. Always.

Right now, the bond market is acting weird. Really weird.

TLT should be moving if rates are actually going to change. It’s barely budging. We’re getting a Fed decision today that everyone expects to be a hold, but the bond market isn’t even pretending to care about future rate cuts.

That’s not normal.

The $5 Trillion Elephant in the Room

While everyone’s focused on Iran, there’s a spending bill sitting in the Senate that’s about to add $5 trillion to the debt ceiling. Five. Trillion. Dollars.

The House Republicans wanted bigger SALT exemptions – doesn’t look like they’re getting them. Nobody wanted to raise the debt ceiling – well, tough luck, it’s happening anyway.

This is the stuff that actually moves markets long-term. Not three days of Middle East tensions that’ll blow over like they always do.

What the Smart Money Is Watching

I’ve been looking at TLT, the long-term Treasury ETF. In a normal world, if the Fed’s dovish and rates are coming down, TLT should be flying. It’s not.

I also looked at TBF, which moves opposite to bonds. Same thing – not reacting the way it should.

This tells me the bond market knows something the stock market doesn’t. Or the bond traders are just as confused as everyone else, which might be worse.

The Real Volatility Is Coming

Forget Iran for a minute. The next two weeks, when this spending bill comes out of the Senate, that’s when you’ll see real volatility. Bond yields could spike if investors realize we’re about to blow up the deficit even more than expected.

And if bond yields spike, everything else falls. Doesn’t matter how many defense contractors are getting orders.

Here’s What I’m Doing

I’m watching the bond market like a hawk. When TLT starts moving the way it should, or when it breaks down completely, that’s your signal for what happens next in stocks.

I’m also keeping cash ready. If this spending bill hits the market the wrong way, we could see some real opportunities in beaten-down names that have nothing to do with Middle East tensions.

The crowd’s watching the wrong thing. Again.

Don’t make that mistake.

Speaking of Opportunities…

Next week, Bryan and I are celebrating a pretty crazy milestone – we just hit over 2,025 winning trades since we launched the War Room six years ago.

To celebrate, we’re doing something we’ve never done before: a full week of completely free live trading. No catch, no delayed billing, no BS.

2,025 GOLDEN WINNER OPEN HOUSE CELEBRATE WITH FREE LIVE TRADES ALL WEEK! June 23 – 27 (9 am to 4 pm)

Click Here to Reserve Your FREE Spot

As Bryan put it: “We are challenging ourselves to host the BIGGEST Open House ever… Will we hit 20 winners… and an OVERNIGHT DOUBLE? During this week of FREE trades? Only one way to find out…”

You’ll get every premarket setup, real-time commentary during market hours, and all our live trade recommendations as they happen.

Plus we’re doing something new – live debrief sessions on Wednesday and Friday where you can ask questions and see exactly why we made each trade.

The last time we did an open house, participants got 15 trades in five days. One guy doubled his money overnight on a completely free recommendation.

Will this bond market situation I’m watching create some of those opportunities next week? There’s only one way to find out.

Reserve Your Free Spot Here.