On February 20, I told readers of my Technical Pattern Profits VIP Trading Service that if oil rose above $65, it would quickly reach $80. After it reached $80, I said it would go on to $95.

Just 17 days later, oil crossed $100.

I am the Chief Income Strategist at The Oxford Club, and I have been tracking energy markets for decades.

I can tell you this: there have only been three other times in the past 44 years that oil spiked above $100 per barrel. It happened in 2008, from 2011 to 2014, and in 2022, after the pandemic.

That obviously causes pain at the pump and raises inflation, as everything gets more costly to ship.

But what does it mean for stocks?

Five Times Oil Spiked. Here Is What Happened Next.

In 1990, when Iraq invaded Kuwait, oil prices quickly doubled from around $20 per barrel to more than $40. During that move, the S&P 500 had a nearly identical inverse reaction.

Nine years later, as dot-com mania peaked, oil surged from about $10 per barrel to nearly $40.

As oil rose, the S&P, caught in the final throes of dot-com mania, did not slide immediately. It continued to rise even though the rally was running out of gas. Just as oil peaked, the market began its plunge.

$100 Oil

The first time oil broke above $100 was January 2, 2008.

As oil began its rise, the market did not drop immediately. But that $100 level proved too much.

The market melted down. Oil ascending to $145 added more pressure on stocks.

The global recession brought oil back in check. But it surged again when the Arab Spring uprisings began in December 2010. Oil bounced between roughly $75 and $110 for the next three years.

After the financial crisis, stocks recovered even as oil prices doubled between 2009 and 2011 and remained elevated for years. The S&P continued higher despite the high price of oil.

The COVID crash in 2020 obliterated both oil prices and stock prices. They quickly recovered together. But when oil hit $100, stocks topped out, and the 2022 bear market began.

What the History Actually Tells You

Yes, in 2008 and 2022, $100 oil coincided with major market declines. But in both cases, the damage came from other forces.

In 2008 it was a global financial crisis. In 2022, it was the most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in four decades. The oil price was part of the pressure, not the cause.

The pattern across five decades is not what most people expect. Oil spiking above $100 does not automatically kill the stock market. What it does is change the math for certain sectors while creating real opportunities in others.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

Energy stocks, pipelines, and royalty companies benefit directly when oil stays elevated. Consumer staples and healthcare tend to hold up because demand does not shrink when oil is at $100. The sectors that get hurt are the ones most sensitive to input costs and consumer spending.

The EIA is currently forecasting that oil stays above $95 for the next two months. That is not a crash. That is a sustained environment that rewards investors who are positioned correctly.

Investing when oil prices are rising is like driving during a bad storm. It does not mean a crash is coming. It means you should be paying closer attention to where you are going.