Most investors run the same portfolio in every market. That is a mistake.

There is a time to push it. To swing for excessive returns, load up on high beta names, and let compounding do the heavy lifting.

And there is a time to protect what you have, generate income, and wait for the right conditions to come back around.

The market is flat on the year. The VIX is sitting at 28. There are war headlines every morning. Now is not the time to push.

I own silver. Have for years. I love silver. But in January, when dealers stopped buying it, when the spread between what you could buy it for and what you could sell it for blew out to levels I had never seen, I shorted it.

Not because I stopped believing in silver. Because silver had stopped being an investment and had become speculation. The environment changed. My position changed with it.

That is the only way to stay in this game long term. You have to know which game you are in.

That’s where beta comes in…

Why Beta Matters Right Now

Beta is a measure of how much a stock amplifies the market’s moves. A stock with a beta of 1 moves in line with the S&P 500. A stock with a beta of 2 moves twice as much in both directions.

When the market goes up 10%, that stock goes up 20%. When the market goes down 10%, that stock goes down 20%.

Carvana’s beta is 2.32 right now. The stock hit an all-time high of $486 in January 2026. It is now trading around $323. That is a 33% drop in two months.

The market environment shifted, and high beta names get hit hardest when the music stops. And despite the drop, Carvana is a stock I believe still has a ton of risk, and one I’d avoid.

In a raging bull market, high beta stocks are rocket ships. In a flat, choppy, headline-driven market, they are the first things that get sold.

Right now, the S&P 500 is basically flat on the year. If you are loaded up on high beta names, you’ve been riding violent swings in both directions and ending up nowhere. That is not investing. That is punishment.

So the question to ask yourself today is this…

Is my portfolio built for the environment I am actually in?

Two Different Games

There are two different games you can play depending on where the market is.

Game 1 is growth mode. The market is trending higher. Breadth is expanding. Volatility is low. That is when you want exposure to high beta names, speculative positions, companies growing fast and priced for perfection.

That is when you push for excessive returns. You have the wind at your back and you use it.

Game 2 is preservation mode. The market is choppy. Volatility is elevated. Headlines are driving price action instead of fundamentals. That is when your job is not to make a killing. Your job is to not lose ground. You own sound businesses.

You collect income. You position yourself to have dry powder when Game 1 comes back around.

The AI names that ran 200% and are now giving half of it back. Carvana off 33% from its highs. Crypto names getting cut in half. Those are Game 1 trades.

In Game 1 you own them and you ride them. In Game 2 you watch them from the sideline.

How to Know Which Game You Are In

Look at the trend. Is the market making higher highs and higher lows over the last six months? That is Game 1.

Is the market flat or lower over the last six months, with violent rallies that fail at resistance and violent selloffs that find support? That is Game 2.

That is where we are right now.

Look at the VIX. The VIX is what the options market charges to protect against downside. When it is below 15, the market is calm and complacent. When it is above 25, the market is pricing in serious uncertainty.

At 28 right now, the market is telling you it doesn’t know where it is going.

In that environment, speculative high beta names are a trap. You can get a 15% rip in a week followed by a 12% selloff the next.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

Own good businesses. Kimberly-Clark has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years. Not 53 years of paying a dividend. Fifty-three years of raising it. Through recessions, market crashes, pandemics, and wars.

The stock is currently yielding 5.12%, meaning for every dollar you invest, you collect more than five cents in cash per year just for owning it. That is not exciting. That is the point. Boring pays you while you wait.

And hold cash. Not because you are scared. Because cash is a position. In April 2025, the market sold off hard and fast. The investors who had been fully deployed in high beta names were sitting on massive drawdowns, too shell-shocked to act.

The investors who had kept cash on the sidelines were the ones who could step in and buy quality at panic prices. That is not luck. That is preparation.

When the environment shifts, and it will, you just need to be in position when the trend returns.

The speculator in me? I’m looking at gold and silver miners that are down 40-50% off their highs.

Pigs get slaughtered on Wall Street. The investor who tries to play Game 1 in a Game 2 environment is the pig.

Don’t be the pig.

FUN FACT FRIDAY

Every time oil has sustained above $90 a barrel in modern history, a recession has followed within 12 to 18 months. The 1973 embargo. The 2008 spike to $147. The 2022 run to $130.

Oil started 2026 below $60. It hit near $120 in a matter of weeks.

When the recession fears get louder… don’t be surprised.